Commodity Intelligence Report

Groundnuts (Peanuts)

Generated: October 06, 2026
Agriculture
Sub-Saharan Africa
World Bank Commodity Pink Sheets
Verified
Valuation & Metrics
1,171.66 USD per Kilogram
YTD Performance: -5.10%
28D Momentum: -0.04%
Regression Slope: -0.09
7D Projection: 1,171.62
7D Expected Range: 1,170.52 - 1,172.73
Signal Reliability: 50%
Based on data alignment, market sentiment and historical volatility
Executive Summary
  • Sub-Saharan Africa remains the world's largest groundnut producer, with Nigeria, Senegal, and Sudan commanding ~40% of global supply, positioning the region as a critical node for both domestic consumption and export-driven value chains.
  • Regional logistics infrastructure—spanning port capacity in West Africa, inland transport networks, and cold-chain limitations—remains a structural constraint on margin expansion and market competitiveness versus competing origins.
  • Groundnut demand fundamentals remain resilient across snacking, oil-crushing, and butter production segments, though price volatility and currency fluctuations in key producing nations create persistent hedging challenges for regional traders.
+5.5 Moderately Bullish
Price Performance (28-Day Trend)
Intelligence Matrix
🚢 Logistics & Supply

Port congestion and inland transport fragmentation in West Africa limit rapid order fulfillment and increase landed costs; regional cold-chain gaps elevate post-harvest losses and reduce premium-grade supply availability.

🌍 Origin Insight

Nigeria and Senegal's combined production capacity and established export infrastructure position them as reliable suppliers, though climate variability and soil depletion in key growing zones present medium-term yield risks.

⚖️ Regulatory Shift

Tariff harmonization efforts within ECOWAS and emerging food-safety standards (aflatoxin limits) are gradually standardizing trade flows, though inconsistent enforcement across borders creates compliance friction.

📊 Price Trend

Global groundnut prices track crude oil and vegetable oil benchmarks; Sub-Saharan production cycles (June–September harvest) typically drive seasonal supply surges, creating predictable margin compression windows for traders.